POC-MD MRI-based Trial in Relapsing-remitting Multiple Scler
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-04-30, after 2009-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multiple sclerosisrelapsingplacebodouble blindremitting
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofmgperiodstudy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 222 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 203 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 222 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 2 Study of Atacicept in Subjects With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (ATAMS) NCT00642902 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of AIN457 (Secukinumab) in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT01874340 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Ozanimod (RPC1063) in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Patients NCT01628393 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Ozanimod in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02047734 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01433250 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.