Efficacy and Safety of AIN457 (Secukinumab) in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiple sclerosisplaceborelapsingmay applyprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofmultiplethe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 307 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 524 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 10 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01433250 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• POC-MD MRI-based Trial in Relapsing-remitting Multiple Scler NCT01051817 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Atacicept in Subjects With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (ATAMS) NCT00642902 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of ACT-128800 in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01006265 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Daclizumab in Participants With RRMS Switching From Natalizumab NCT02881567 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.