Study of Safety and Efficacy of Durvalumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticbreast cancernegativecellschemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacydexamethasonecorticosteroidsmalesafety
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6084 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Durvalumab Combined to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Localized Luminal B HER2(-) and Triple Negative Breast Cancer. NCT03356860 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Aromatase Inhibitor and Durvalumab in Postmenopausal Breast Cancer NCT03874325 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Trial of Durvalumab (MEDI4736) as 1st Line Therapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02879617 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Monotherapy for Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (MK-3475-086/KEYNOTE-086) NCT02447003 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With or Without SBRT in Clinical Stage I, II and IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02904954 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.