Aromatase Inhibitor and Durvalumab in Postmenopausal Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpriortherapytumorchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsarthritisjointinflammatorybleeding
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10136 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 57945 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of Durvalumab Combined to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Localized Luminal B HER2(-) and Triple Negative Breast Cancer. NCT03356860 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With or Without SBRT in Clinical Stage I, II and IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02904954 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Neoantigen DNA Vaccine Alone vs. Neoantigen DNA Vaccine Plus Durvalumab in Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients Following Standard of Care Therapy NCT03199040 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Chemoradiation Followed by Durvalumab in Poor Risk and/or Elderly Patients With Stage III NSCLC NCT04441138 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of Durvalumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients NCT02628132 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.