A Phase 2 Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of IMO-2125 With 8 mg Ipilimumab in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients muststagemelanomadose ofuln
  Phrases that lowered it: lesionsparticipantspatients whopharmacokineticsefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tilsotolimod in Combo With Ipilimumab vs Ipilimumab Alone in Subjects With Anti-PD-1 Refractory Melanoma NCT03445533 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Intratumoral IMO-2125 in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT03052205 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Combined Treatment With Ipilimumab and Intratumoral Interleukin-2 NCT01480323 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study of Intratumoral Injection of Interleukin-2 and Ipilimumab in Patients With Unresectable Stages III-IV Melanoma NCT01672450 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• THE IPI - Trial in Advanced Melanoma: Melanoma Patients With Advanced Disease NCT01355120 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.