Durvalumab in Patients With HER-2 Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Receiving Trastuzumab
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-12, after 2016-05-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpatients mustconcurrentchemotherapyradiation
Phrases that lowered it: male90severedosemm -
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17493 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2874 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab, trastuzumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy of Durvalumab Combined to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Localized Luminal B HER2(-) and Triple Negative Breast Cancer. NCT03356860 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Chemoradiation Followed by Durvalumab in Poor Risk and/or Elderly Patients With Stage III NSCLC NCT04441138 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Durvalumab and Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Advanced NSCLC NCT04786093 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- FRAIL-IMMUNE (GORTEC 2018-03) - Combination of Durvalumab With Carboplatin/Paclitaxel NCT03723967 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- GC 2nd Line Durvalumab(MEDI4736)/Tremelimumab Plus Paclitaxel Study NCT03751761 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.