Elotuzumab in Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation (ASCT) and Lenalidomide Maintenance for Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celllenalidomideenrollmenttransplantdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: multipleplasmadays beforeinvestigatordrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85573 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34796 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Study for High Risk Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT03104270 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Lenalidomide/Bortezomib/Dexamethasone & CNTO 328 in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT01531998 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of Initial Treatment With Elotuzumab, Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma NCT02969837 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Phase 1b Multicenter Study of Carfilzomib With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT00603447 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• IMGN901 in Combination With Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone NCT00991562 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.