Combination Study for High Risk Multiple Myeloma Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-01-23, after 2017-03-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breasttransplantheartfailureenrollment
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofdrugsmyeloma -
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 30337 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 115812 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 30337 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carfilzomib, dexamethasone, elotuzumab, pomalidomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Elotuzumab in Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation (ASCT) and Lenalidomide Maintenance for Multiple Myeloma NCT02655458 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- LCI-HEM-MYE-CRD-002: Carfilzomib-Revlimid-Dexamethasone-Elotuzumab in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03361306 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
- Study of Initial Treatment With Elotuzumab, Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Multiple Myeloma NCT02969837 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Study of Decadron, Biaxin, and Pomalidomide in Relapsed/Refractory Myeloma NCT01159574 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib Study of SAR650984 in Combination With Carfilzomib for Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02332850 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.