Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of LCZ696 Followed by a 52-week, Double-blind Study of LCZ696 Compared With Enalapril in Pediatric Patients With Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (75 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyheartchronicventricularleft
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateobstructiveand safetypulmonaryevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 942 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 118538 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23886 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Preserved Left-ventricular Ejection Fraction NCT00887588 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• This Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Enalapril on Morbidity and Mortality of Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT01035255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Open-label Extension Study to Evaluate Long-term Safety of Sacubitril/Valsartan in Pediatric Patients With HF NCT03785405 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Safety/Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) of LCZ696 in Patients With Stable Heart Failure NCT00913653 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-blind Controlled Study Comparing LCZ696 to Medical Therapy for Comorbidities in HFpEF Patients NCT03066804 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.