Phase II Trial of Sequential Consolidation With Pembrolizumab Followed by Nab-paclitaxel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancersmallcell lungpaclitaxelchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: criteria maysubjectsvisitscreeninginvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7812 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Continuation Therapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03083808 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• MK-3475 in Combination With Docetaxel vs Docetaxel Alone in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02574598 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy in NSCLC With Targetable Genetic Alterations After Progression on Targeted Agents NCT03242915 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC NCT03256136 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.