A Study of CLR325 in Chronic Stable Heart Failure Patients.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurechronicto determinerandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: baselinepatientsdose ofstablemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 890 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 198 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Renal Hemodynamic Effects of RLX030A in Subjects With Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) NCT01546532 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Dose Ranging Phase IIa Study of 6 Hour Intravenous Dosages of CXL-1427 in Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure NCT02157506 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Preserved Left-ventricular Ejection Fraction NCT00887588 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Safety/Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) of LCZ696 in Patients With Stable Heart Failure NCT00913653 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study to Explore the Efficacy of TRV027 in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT01966601 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.