A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ASP5094 Following Multiple Intravenous Doses in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasto screeningprior todefinedsubject must
  Phrases that lowered it: dayadministrationmultipleperiodfemale
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Had an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Methotrexate (MTX) NCT03660059 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics of ASP1707 and Methotrexate in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02867306 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• First in Human Study of a Monoclonal Antibody (SOL-116) Targeting BSSL (Bile Salt-Stimulated Lipase), Single and Multiple Dose Parts NCT05576012 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of GSK315234A in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00674635 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.