Phase II Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of GSK315234A in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 708 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 547 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasthe subjectsubject muststablegreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: participantdosingalcoholto investigateinvestigate the
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of GSK3117391 in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02965599 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Escalation Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of ASP2409 Following a Single Intravenous Dose in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02171143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• First in Human Study of a Monoclonal Antibody (SOL-116) Targeting BSSL (Bile Salt-Stimulated Lipase), Single and Multiple Dose Parts NCT05576012 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of ASP5094 Following Multiple Intravenous Doses in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Methotrexate NCT02698657 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Safety and Effect on Pain and Function According to RAPID-3 of IHL-675A in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT05942911 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.