Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of GSK3117391 in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcountsitucarcinomasquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsat screeningpharmacokineticsabnormalhistory
• Sponsor's past trials: 2328 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 219 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of GSK315234A in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00674635 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK), Pharmacodynamics (PD) and Efficacy of Repeat Doses of GSK2982772 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT02858492 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of HLX01+MTX in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03522415 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Target Engagement (TE) Study of GSK3858279 in Healthy Participants and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Repeat Doses in Participants With Osteoarthritis (OA) NCT03485365 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Pharmacokinetics and Safety of GSK3196165 in Combination With Methotrexate in Japanese Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT03028467 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.