Minocycline and Celecoxib as Adjunctive Treatments of Bipolar Depression
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-12-31, after 2016-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosis oftherapypriordeterminecardiac
Phrases that lowered it: trialrandomisedparticipantsgoodinflammatory -
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8412 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 13 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 72508 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8412 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 68.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, minocycline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Minocycline and Aspirin in the Treatment of Bipolar Depression NCT01429272 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Efficacy of Adjunctive Minocycline for the Treatment of Bipolar Depression NCT01403662 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Adjunct Minocyline in Treatment-resistant Depression NCT02456948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Minocycline as Adjunctive Treatment for Treatment Resistant Depression NCT03947827 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Adjunctive Use of Celecoxib in the Treatment of Bipolar Postpartum Depression NCT02726659 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.