Evaluating the Efficacy of Adjunctive Minocycline for the Treatment of Bipolar Depression
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-12-31, after 2011-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to determinebipolardepressiveacutegreater than
Phrases that lowered it: inflammatoryindividualsmgopen labellong term -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 76 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 117 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 76 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2614 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 514 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- minocycline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Minocycline and Celecoxib as Adjunctive Treatments of Bipolar Depression NCT02703363 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Minocycline and Aspirin in the Treatment of Bipolar Depression NCT01429272 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Adjunct Minocyline in Treatment-resistant Depression NCT02456948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Minocycline as Adjunctive Treatment for Treatment Resistant Depression NCT03947827 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate the Effects of NMRA-335140 on Symptoms of Major Depression in Participants With Bipolar II Disorder. NCT06429722 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.