5-fluorouracil Versus Placebo in Periocular Full Thickness Skin Grafts

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failuretherapygraftsurgerypost
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thethe studyinjectionsinjectionwill evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 89 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of GLYC-101 to Evaluate Outcomes After Laser Ablation NCT00792688 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 0.25% Timolol Gel in Enhancing Full Thickness Skin Grafts Healing and Cosmetic Outcomes NCT03579160 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Adipose Derived Stem Cells in Facial Fat Grafting NCT02526576 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Analgesic Effect of Ropivacaine in Topical Use at the Thin Skin Graft Donor Site NCT01999153 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of FS VH S/D 4 S-apr for Flap Adherence in Rhytidectomy NCT00999141 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.