Thoracal Radiotherapy and Tarceva
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 25% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-12-30, after 2014-04-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerradiotherapyto determineconcurrentpatients must
Phrases that lowered it: timescomparedinterfere withcomparisonerlotinib -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 58.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 91 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 39 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7990 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2166 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 99.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 58.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Erlotinib Plus Radiotherapy (RT) for Patients With Advanced or Inoperable Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT00983307 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- 2nd Line Erlotinib Treatment With (Out) Chemotherapy of Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00835471 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Docetaxel Intermittent-Erlotinib (Tarceva®) In Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00783471 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Study of Erlotinib With Docetaxel in Selected Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients in First Line Treatment NCT00840125 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Feasibility of Cetuximab Associated With Concomitant Radio-Chemotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00985855 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.