A Study of Erlotinib Plus Radiotherapy (RT) for Patients With Advanced or Inoperable Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stageradiationnsclclung cancercell lung
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andthe efficacypresenceresultdays before
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 2nd Line Erlotinib Treatment With (Out) Chemotherapy of Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00835471 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) to Compare Two Different Doses in in Currently Smoking Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (CURRENTS) NCT01183858 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Thoracal Radiotherapy and Tarceva NCT02714530 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Therapy and Subsequent Development of Mechanisms of Secondary Resistance in Patients With NSCLC NCT00997334 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• S0709: Erlotinib With or Without Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00661193 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.