S0709: Erlotinib With or Without Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lunglung cancersmall cellnon smallstage
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressurecharacteristicsphysicalcontraceptionpositive
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 32.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Erlotinib Therapy and Subsequent Development of Mechanisms of Secondary Resistance in Patients With NSCLC NCT00997334 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• MET/VEGFR2 Inhibitor GSK1363089 and Erlotinib Hydrochloride or Erlotinib Hydrochloride Alone in Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC That Has Not Responded to Previous Chemotherapy NCT01068587 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation and Carboplatin in Treating Patients With Stage IIIB, Stage IV, or Recurrent Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00729612 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Study of Combination Therapy of Carboplatin -Gemcitabine Plus Bevacizumab Beyond Progression in Patients With Locally Advanced and/or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Not Received Prior Systemic Therapy NCT00702975 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin and Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation Followed by Radiation Therapy and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT00553462 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.