UCB Transplant for Hematological Diseases Using a Non Myeloablative Prep

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantchemotherapyleukemiaeligibleremission
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultiplelymphomadiseasesrelapsed
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 52.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 112425 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17756 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 107 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Allo HSCT Using RIC for Hematological Diseases NCT02661035 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Mismatched Transplantation Using High-dose Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide NCT01010217 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Donor Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant With or Without Ex-vivo Expanded Cord Blood Progenitor Cells in Treating Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia, Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia, Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia, or Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01690520 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Hematologic Malignancies NCT01028716 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Tocilizumab for the Prevention of Graft Versus Host Disease After Cord Blood Transplantation NCT03434730 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.