Tocilizumab for the Prevention of Graft Versus Host Disease After Cord Blood Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: amlleukemiariskequal tohigh
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsintendedtocilizumabthe effecteffect of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 478 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 140402 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combined T Cell Depleted Haploidentical Peripheral Blood Stem Cell and Unrelated Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation in Patients With Hematologic Malignancies Using a Total Lymphoid Irradiation Based Preparative Regimen NCT02199041 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Hematologic Malignancies NCT01028716 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Donor Stem Cell Transplantation Using α/β+ T-lymphocyte Depleted Grafts From HLA Mismatched Donors NCT03615105 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• UCB Transplant for Hematological Diseases Using a Non Myeloablative Prep NCT02722668 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Mismatched Transplantation Using High-dose Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide NCT01010217 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.