A Phase I, Dose Escalation Study of BNC101 in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-02-28, after 2016-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: bowelchroniccarcinomariskcontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: combinationnormalaminotransferasemonotherapymg -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bemcentinib (BGB324) in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Patients With TNBC NCT03184558 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Pembrolizumab Plus Ramucirumab in Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT04632459 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- A Study of CTX-009 in Adult Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT05513742 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- The BURAN Study of Buparlisib in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic HNSCC NCT04338399 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab, Capecitabine, and Bevacizumab for Treating Colorectal Cancer NCT03396926 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.