The CHECK Trial: A Comparison of Headache Treatment in the Emergency Department: Compazine Versus Ketamine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-05-31, after 2016-08-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hourspatientpressureangleseverity
Phrases that lowered it: allergypaintrialkgwill receive -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 2 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 28.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14200 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3561 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine, prochlorperazine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- THINK Trial: Treatment of Headache With IntraNasal Ketamine: A Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of Intranasal Ketamine Versus Standard Therapy in the Management of Primary Headache Syndromes in the Emergency Department NCT03081416 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Clinical Trial of a New Neuromodulation Device for Acute Attacks of Migraine in Children and Adolescents NCT05102591 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of CLORazepate for the Treatment of MIGraine Attack in the Emergency Room NCT04726592 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- Chronic Postconcussive Headache: A Placebo-Controlled Treatment Trial of Prazosin NCT02266329 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Comparison of a Drug and Placebo in the Prevention of Migraine Headaches NCT01122381 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.