OD-PHOENIX in Talus Osteochondral Lesion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-09-07, after 2017-01-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerlesionbreastmrinegative
Phrases that lowered it: smokingrheumatoidarthritisexcessiveproducts -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Second Line Treatment of Knee Osteochondral Lesion With Treated Osteochondral Graft NCT02430558 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Allogenic Stem Cell Product(CARTISTEM®) for Osteochondral Lesion of Talus NCT04310215 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness of NOVOCART 3D Plus vs. Microfracture in Knee Cartilage Defects NCT01656902 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Allogeneic UCMSCs for Treating Large Defects Knee Injury NCT05016011 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- NOVOCART® Inject Plus for Cartilage Defects of the Knee NCT03319797 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.