Pharmacodynamic Effects of Riociguat in Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withrandomizationwomen withivdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmavisiteffectpredictedfev1
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 66 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 245 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Oral Treprostinil in Subjects With Pulmonary Hypertension Associated With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT03037580 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Sotatercept for the Treatment of Cpc-PH Due to HFpEF (MK-7962-007/A011-16) NCT04945460 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Riociguat in Incipient Pulmonary Vascular Disease as an Indicator for Early PAH NCT05339087 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Phase III Clinical Worsening Study of UT-15C in Subjects With PAH Receiving Background Oral Monotherapy NCT01560624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• REGN5381 in Heart Failure Adult Participants With Elevated Pulmonary Capillary Wedge Pressure NCT05353166 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.