Oral Treprostinil in Subjects With Pulmonary Hypertension Associated With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationthe subjectsubjectsheartfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyactinginhaledevaluate thebody mass
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9030 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43436 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacodynamic Effects of Riociguat in Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT02744339 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Inhaled Treprostinil in Adult PH With ILD Including CPFE NCT02630316 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Beraprost-314d Added-on to Tyvaso® (BEAT) NCT01908699 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Open-label, Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of TreT in Subjects With PAH Currently Using Tyvaso NCT03950739 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Phase III Clinical Worsening Study of UT-15C in Subjects With PAH Receiving Background Oral Monotherapy NCT01560624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.