Phase I Study of BAY1436032 in IDH1-mutant Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: scanwomenmyocardialcoronaryheart
  Phrases that lowered it: solidparticipantdosepharmacokineticseffect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• IDH1 Inhibitor AB-218 in Patients With Advanced IDH1 Mutant Cholangiocarcinoma and Other Solid Tumor NCT05814536 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Study of Orally Administered AG-120 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors, Including Glioma, With an IDH1 Mutation NCT02073994 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• BAY1238097, First in Man NCT02369029 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Study of Orally Administered Enasidenib (AG-221) in Adults With Advanced Solid Tumors, Including Glioma, or Angioimmunoblastic T-cell Lymphoma, With an IDH2 Mutation NCT02273739 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Trial of the KRAS G12C Inhibitor Adagrasib (MRTX849) in Combination With the PARP Inhibitor Olaparib in Patients With KRAS G12C Mutated Advanced Solid Tumors, With a Focus on Gynecological, Breast, Pancreatic and KEAP1 Mutated Non-small Cell Lung Cancers NCT06130254 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.