Carboplatin Plus Etoposide With or Without MPDL3280A in Untreated Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorinfluenzacancerradiationacute
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritismethotrexaterheumatoidtype diabetesmg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7945 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant MPDL3280A, Nab-paclitaxel and Carboplatin (MAC) in NSCLC NCT02716038 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab Immunotherapy in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT03102242 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Efficacy of Atezolizumab in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03014648 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Atezolizumab for Patients With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) With Untreated, Asymptomatic Brain Metastases NCT04610684 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab vs Topotecan in Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02963090 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.