Effects of p38 Inhibitor AZD7624 in Corticosteroid Resistant Asthma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-02-25, after 2017-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: the patientpatientsdiseasethe following10
Phrases that lowered it: asthmahealthyvisitfev1smoking -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 143718 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 143718 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 29076 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prednisone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase II Study to Evaluate the Effect of AZD4604 on Airway Inflammation and Biomarkers in Adults With Asthma NCT06435273 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Multiple Rising Oral Doses of BI 1060469 in Healthy Subjects and Mild Asthma Patients NCT02126865 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Navarixin (SCH 527123) in Participants With Allergen-Induced Asthma (P05363) NCT00688467 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics (PK), Pharmacodynamics (PD) and Safety of 2-Week Treatment With Inhaled AZD7594 in Adolescents (12 to 17 Years) With Asthma NCT03976869 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of GSK3772847 in Subjects With Moderately Severe Asthma NCT03207243 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.