A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-05-01, after 2016-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dose ofof studysubject hasmutationfirst dose
Phrases that lowered it: screeningpharmacokineticsnormal rangemedicationcurrent or -
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 6 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 4 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 6 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vamorolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Extension Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT02760277 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT03439670 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Long-term Extension Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT03038399 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys Ages 2 to <4 Years and 7 to <18 Years With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT05185622 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study of AVI-4658 to Induce Dystrophin Expression in Selected Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patients NCT01396239 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.