A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject ispriorthe subjectdiabetes
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineparticipantsevaluateeffectsafety
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 189084 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33600 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys Ages 2 to <4 Years and 7 to <18 Years With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT05185622 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Becker Muscular Dystrophy (BMD) NCT05166109 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT02760264 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT02760277 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Long-term Extension Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT03038399 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.