A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Becker Muscular Dystrophy (BMD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-08-18, after 2022-07-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subject hassubject ispriorplacebocriteria subject
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineadministrationfirst doseto evaluateevaluate the -
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 64 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vamorolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT03439670 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys Ages 2 to <4 Years and 7 to <18 Years With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT05185622 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Vamorolone in Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT02760264 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety of a New Oxime, MMB4 DIMETHANESULFONATE (DMS) NCT02018250 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Changes in Biomarker and Clinical Outcome Assessments of Losmapimod for FSHD1 With Extension NCT04004000 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.