RANKL-blockade for the Treatment of Erosive Osteoarthritis (OA) of Interphalangeal Finger Joints

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withplacebo controlledsubjectblind placeborandomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: oaosteoarthritisjointarthritisaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 172 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13262 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 41495 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy Study of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Erosive Hand Osteoarthritis NCT01200472 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Denosumab China Phase III Study NCT02014467 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dosing Regimens of Olokizumab (OKZ), Compared to Placebo, in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Were Taking an Existing Medication Called a Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha Inhibitor But Had Active Disease NCT02760433 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Compare Biosimilar Denosumab With Prolia® NCT05405725 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study of Certolizumab Pegol as Additional Therapy in Chinese Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02151851 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.