Phase II Treatment Stratification Trial Using Neck Dissection-Driven Selection to Improve Quality of Life for Low Risk Patients With HPV+ Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerlifepatients mustdeterminemonths
  Phrases that lowered it: 90patientsgeneralcelllymph
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 57769 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10972 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study of Chemotherapy for HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancer NCT04572100 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• TRYHARD: Radiation Therapy Plus Cisplatin With or Without Lapatinib in Treating Patients With Head and Neck Cancer. NCT01711658 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant De-Escalated Radiation + Adjuvant Nivolumab for Intermediate-High Risk P16+ Oropharynx Cancer NCT03715946 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• De-intensification of Radiation & Chemotherapy in Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus-related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Ca NCT01530997 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Chemotherapy Prior to Radiotherapy and Chemotherapy in Patients With HPV Associated Cancer of the Oral Cavity NCT01525927 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.