Safety of Intra-Articular Sc-rAAV2.5IL-1Ra in Subjects With Moderate Knee OA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectssyndromemriweightloss
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofpatientskneeinterferearthritis
• Sponsor's past trials: 933 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 253 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lyophilized and Micronized Particulate Human Amniotic and Umbilical Cord (TTAX03) for KL Grade 3-4 Knee OA NCT05079035 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of UBX0101 in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT03513016 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Intra-articular Transplantation of Autologous Adipose Derived Stromal Vascular Faction (SVF) for Treatment of Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT03940950 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of Cingal™ for the Relief of Knee Osteoarthritis Compared to Triamcinolone Hexacetonide NCT03191903 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety, Tolerability, Preliminary Efficacy of Intra-articular LNA043 Injections in Patients With Articular Cartilage Lesions and Knee Osteoarthritis. NCT03275064 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.