Cell Therapy by Autologous BMC for Large Bone Defect Repair
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2016-07-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstumortherapychemotherapytransplant
Phrases that lowered it: diseasesefficacy andclinical trialinvestigateaged -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 24 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Autologous MSCs Combined to Biomaterials to Enhance Bone Healing NCT01842477 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- A Comparative Study of 2 Doses of BM Autologous H-MSC+Biomaterial vs Iliac Crest AutoGraft for Bone Healing in Non-Union NCT03325504 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Study on Autologous Osteoblastic Cells Implantation in Hypotrophic Non-Union Fractures NCT01756326 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for the Treatment of Non-union Fractures of Long Bones NCT02230514 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Non Union of Long Bone Fractures by Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell NCT01206179 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.