A Study to Evaluate the Effects of 4 Weeks Treatment With Subcutaneous Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsplacebo controlledheart30randomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: mmaminotransferaseasthmaulnupper
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Cardiac and Renal Effects of Short Term Treatment With Elamipretide in Patients Hospitalized With Congestion Due to Heart Failure NCT02914665 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• This Study Tests Empagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF). The Study Looks at How Far Patients Can Walk in 6 Minutes and at Their Heart Failure Symptoms. NCT03448406 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.