A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Cardiac and Renal Effects of Short Term Treatment With Elamipretide in Patients Hospitalized With Congestion Due to Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hoursplacebo controlledblind placebosubject hasrandomized double
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasemgulndlserum
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of 4 Weeks Treatment With Subcutaneous Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT02814097 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Istaroxime for Pre-Cardiogenic Shock NCT04325035 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of the Short Term Clinical Effects of Tolvaptan in Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Heart Failure With Challenging Volume Management NCT01584557 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.