Safety and Efficacy Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Chinese Participants With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma (MK-3475-151/KEYNOTE-151)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomachemotherapystagetherapycell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantvaccineimmunosuppressivedose
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 34.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 114 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1149 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2831 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Combined With Lenvatinib (MK-7902/E7080) as First-line Intervention in Adults With Advanced Melanoma (MK-7902-003/E7080-G000-312/LEAP-003)-China Extension Study NCT04889118 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Chinese Participants With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-032/KEYNOTE-032) NCT02835690 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Advanced/Metastatic Acral Lentiginous Melanoma NCT02875132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Relative Bioavailability Study of Subcutaneous Injection Versus Intravenous Infusion of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-555/KEYNOTE-555) NCT03665597 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab as First Line Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Skin NCT02883556 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.