Relative Bioavailability Study of Subcutaneous Injection Versus Intravenous Infusion of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-555/KEYNOTE-555)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltherapycancermelanomaradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccinebioavailabilityeffect ofreceived
• Sponsor's past trials: 1236 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Two Different Dosing Schedules of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Compared to Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-006/KEYNOTE-006) NCT01866319 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab as First Line Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Skin NCT02883556 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Chemotherapy in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-002/P08719/KEYNOTE-002) NCT01704287 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Progressive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Carcinoma, Melanoma, or Non-small Cell Lung Carcinoma (P07990/MK-3475-001/KEYNOTE-001) NCT01295827 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) + Pegylated Interferon Alfa-2b and Pembrolizumab+ Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Melanoma or Renal Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-029/KEYNOTE-29) NCT02089685 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.