Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Chemotherapy in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-002/P08719/KEYNOTE-002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerchemotherapytherapymelanomapaclitaxel
  Phrases that lowered it: participantskgrandomizedopen labelmk
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 921 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7367 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Two Different Dosing Schedules of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Compared to Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-006/KEYNOTE-006) NCT01866319 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Relative Bioavailability Study of Subcutaneous Injection Versus Intravenous Infusion of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-555/KEYNOTE-555) NCT03665597 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Trametinib and Dabrafenib in Participants With Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-022/KEYNOTE-022) NCT02130466 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Unresectable Stage III and Unresectable Stage IV Melanoma NCT02306850 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) + Pegylated Interferon Alfa-2b and Pembrolizumab+ Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Melanoma or Renal Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-029/KEYNOTE-29) NCT02089685 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.