Sensory Effects of Oral Opioid Treatment in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-01, after 2017-01-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidchroniccriteria evidencelow back
Phrases that lowered it: patients20receivetherapypatient -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 170576 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28909 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 259 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 25 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 259 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 86 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 170576 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 28909 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 77.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- morphine, oxycodone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Oxycodone/Naloxone Controlled-release Tablets (OXN) Compared to Placebo in Opioid-experienced Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01358526 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Oxycodone DETERx™ Versus Placebo in Chronic Low Back Pain (CLBP) NCT01685684 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Treating Negative Affect in Low Back Pain Patients NCT04747314 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Study of the Treatment of Experimental Pain in Buprenorphine Maintained Persons With Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain NCT02372591 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Study to Evaluate Buprenorphine HCl Buccal Film in Opioid-Experienced Subjects NCT01675167 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.