FIrst Line Treatment of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: Sequential Nab-paclitaxel + Gemcitabine/FOLFIRI.3 VS Nab-paclitaxel + Gemcitabine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpaclitaxelbreastcellcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: painto evaluateclinical trialaccordingrespiratory
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine Versus Gemcitabine For The First Line Treatment of Pancreas Cancer NCT03807999 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study to Evaluate Nab-paclitaxel in Substitution of CPT11 or Oxaliplatin in FOLFIRINOX Schedule as First Line Treatment in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02109341 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• First-line Treatment of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine NCT02564146 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Bi-weekly Dosing of Gemcitabine Plus Nab-Paclitaxel to Treat Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01851174 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Nab-Paclitaxel and Gemcitabine With or Without Olaratumab (LY3012207) in Participants With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT03086369 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.