Study of Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Refractory Biliary Tract Cancers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-05-24, after 2016-10-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerpriortumorradiationchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsdrugstartwithin weekscorticosteroids -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7675 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 136 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 29.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7675 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5959 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Gemcitabine/Cisplatin or Ipilimumab for Patients With Advanced Unresectable Biliary Tract Cancer NCT03101566 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Apatinib Plus Camrelizumab in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04642664 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Biliary Tract Cancer NCT03260712 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Pancreatic Cancer or Biliary Tract Cancer Patients NCT02866383 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab, a Monoclonal Antibody Against PD-1, in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin (CAPOX) in People With Advanced Biliary Tract Carcinoma (BTC) NCT03111732 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.