Pembrolizumab in Biliary Tract Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapymetastaticcancerbmsct
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningdiseaserenaltract14 days
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15941 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 95364 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Refractory Biliary Tract Cancers NCT02829918 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and GM-CSF in Biliary Cancer NCT02703714 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab, a Monoclonal Antibody Against PD-1, in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin (CAPOX) in People With Advanced Biliary Tract Carcinoma (BTC) NCT03111732 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Pembrolizumab After Curative Intent Treatment for Oligometastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02316002 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab and Olaparib in Bile Duct Cancer NCT04306367 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.