Study of Pembrolizumab and Olaparib in Bile Duct Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancertherapypatientlongcarcinoma of
  Phrases that lowered it: influenzasubjectsscreeningulnseasonal
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8518 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 26088 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating Combination Immunotherapy for Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma With Pembrolizumab and PEG-Intron NCT02982720 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Switch Maintenance Pembrolizumab in Patients With NSCLC After First Line Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy NCT02705820 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing Safety and Efficacy of Combination of BL-8040 and Pembrolizumab in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer Patients NCT02826486 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab and Paclitaxel in Refractory Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02551432 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Pembrolizumab for Refractory Atypical and Anaplastic Meningioma NCT03016091 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.