Evaluating Combination Immunotherapy for Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma With Pembrolizumab and PEG-Intron
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-02-09, after 2017-07-05 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-02-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapymetastaticcarcinomacancerchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: influenzavaccinealfaintendedscreening -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12609 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3800 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- peginterferon alfa2b, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Pembrolizumab and Olaparib in Bile Duct Cancer NCT04306367 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Switch Maintenance Pembrolizumab in Patients With NSCLC After First Line Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy NCT02705820 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Skin Cancer NCT02964559 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab (Anti-PD-1) and AMG386 (Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor NCT03239145 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab (Keytruda) in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma NCT02658019 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.