An Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability Study Comparing Dolutegravir (DTG) Plus Lamivudine (3TC) With Dolutegravir Plus Tenofovir/Emtricitabine in Treatment naïve HIV Infected Participants (Gemini 2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityevidencepostwomendiagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantshiv infectedeffect ofantiretroviral
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability Study Comparing Dolutegravir Plus Lamivudine With Dolutegravir Plus Tenofovir/Emtricitabine in Treatment naïve HIV Infected Subjects (Gemini 1) NCT02831673 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Switch Study to Evaluate Dolutegravir Plus Lamivudine in Virologically Suppressed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Positive Adults (TANGO) NCT03446573 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Regimen Switch to Dolutegravir/Lamivudine Fixed Dose Combination From Current Antiretroviral Regimen in HIV-1 Infected and Virologically Suppressed Adults (SALSA) NCT04021290 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Comparative Efficacy and Safety Study of Dolutegravir and Lopinavir/Ritonavir in Second-line Treatment NCT02227238 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Regimen Switch to Dolutegravir + Rilpivirine From Current Antiretroviral Regimen in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infected and Virologically Suppressed Adults (SWORD-1) NCT02429791 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.