Efficacy Study of Progesterone Tablet in Post-menopausal Women
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-04-25, after 2016-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertherapyphase iipatientconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: kgproductssuspectedhistoryalcohol -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 16 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6415 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1294 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose-finding Study of MR-130A-01 Contraceptive Transdermal Patch NCT06048536 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Efficacy Study of the Combination Estradiol and Progesterone to Treat Vasomotor Symptoms NCT01942668 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3, Randomized, Three-Cycle, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate Induction of Secretory Conversion of Endometrium and Withdrawal Bleeding for Secondary Amenorrhea NCT02019589 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
- Estetrol for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Vasomotor Symptoms in Postmenopausal Women (E4Comfort II) NCT04090957 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring LSP- 5415 on Ovarian Function in Healthy Adult Females NCT05360550 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.